Each year, every National Football League (NFL) team invests millions of dollars in scouting and drafting new players.
The big investment includes reviewing up to four years of film showing a potential new hire doing the job, a week-long showcase (called the Combine) where potential new hires perform fourteen physical and mental tests in front of professional evaluators, countless interviews, and background checks.
Yet over the last decade, even with all of the research, investment, and exposure, only 12.5% of NFL teams received an “A” grade for selecting the best talent. The grades were based upon which team drafted the most stars, longtime starters, and promising young players.
What can we learn from the 4 teams that did better than the other 28?
- Focus on Past Performance vs. Potential: First, the top four teams have learned that four of the Combine tests weighted heavily by many teams have limited validity in predicting future NFL performance. The latest NFL study shows that a prospect's past performance in college is a better indicator of future NFL performance than any physical ability tests. For those looking to hire top talent, this is behavior-based interviewing Rule #1.
- Better New Talent = Better Success: Secondly, teams that draft better win more. The team with the best draft grade (the New England Patriots) had a winning percentage of 75%. The team with the worst draft grade (the Washington Redskins) had a winning percentage of only 54% over the same time period making them a perennial loser.
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